Himanshu Sharma (Backtesting Challenge Entry 3) - Tradophile Webinar

:white_check_mark: Screener Conditions (Entry)

Condition 1

Annual Price-to-Earnings (PE) Ratio < 15

Condition 2

Annual Dividend Yield (%) > 3

These two simple but powerful filters help identify high-quality, undervalued, income-generating companies within the Nifty 50.


:white_check_mark: Logic Behind Choosing These Conditions

This screener is designed to find stable, low-valuation, high-dividend stocks ideal for conservative investors, dividend collectors, and those seeking defensive plays.

Here’s why each condition matters:


:small_blue_diamond: 1. PE Ratio < 15 (Low Valuation)

A low PE typically signals:

  • The company is undervalued compared to its earnings

  • Lower downside risk

  • Safer entry point

  • Room for future PE expansion (value unlocking)

Choosing PE < 15 filters out overpriced or momentum-heavy stocks and focuses on businesses priced reasonably relative to what they earn.


:small_blue_diamond: 2. Dividend Yield > 3% (Strong Income Stocks)

Companies offering >3% yield generally:

  • Share profits consistently with investors

  • Have stable cash flows

  • Are usually mature, low-risk businesses

  • Provide returns even when stock price is sideways

This makes the screener perfect for identifying defensive, income-oriented stocks that perform well in volatile markets.


:white_check_mark: Backtest Results (Last 50 Daily Candles)

The screener generated four high-quality stocks:
BAJFINANCE, COALINDIA, ONGC, and ITC.

:trophy: Best Performing Stock: BAJFINANCE

  • Steady upward returns across all holding periods

  • Strong green performance from 1D to 15D

  • Best blend of value + growth + consistency


:chart_decreasing: Weak Performers

  • COALINDIA → declining returns across timeframes

  • ONGC → moderate slope but slightly improving

  • ITC → stable but not strongly trending


:bar_chart: Avg. Returns vs Win Rate Chart (Insights)

  • BAJFINANCE stands out clearly with the highest average returns on the chart.

  • COALINDIA sits in the lower-left region, indicating low returns and low win rate.

  • ONGC & ITC cluster near neutral return zone with moderate win ratios.

The cluster map clearly shows BAJFINANCE as the top pick.


:chart_increasing: Stock Performance Across Holding Periods

BAJFINANCE

  • Excellent positive slope from 1D to 15D

  • Strong risk–reward and steady growth profile

ITC

  • Gradual upward trend → safe, slow compounder

ONGC

  • Slight upward slope over longer periods

COALINDIA

  • Red slope → declining performance

  • Price weakness across all holding durations

This gives a clear signal which stock is most suitable for short-term swing entries.


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