Himanshu Sharma (Backtesting Challenge Entry 2) - Tradophile Webinar

:white_check_mark: Screener Conditions (Entry 3)

Condition 1

Annual Market Capitalization (₹ Crore) > 20,000

Condition 2

Annual Price-to-Earnings (PE) Ratio < 20

Condition 3

((Latest Annual Total Revenue – Revenue from 3 Years Ago) / Revenue from 3 Years Ago) > 0.15
(Revenue Growth of at least 15% over 3 years)

Condition 4

Latest Annual Book Value Per Share < (Latest Daily Close × 1.05)
(Stock is trading within 5% of its book value, indicating fair/undervalued pricing)


:white_check_mark: Logic Behind Choosing These Conditions

This screener is designed to pick fundamentally strong companies with:

:check_mark: Large market presence
:check_mark: Healthy earnings valuation
:check_mark: Consistent revenue growth
:check_mark: Attractive pricing relative to book value

Here’s the reasoning for each condition:


:small_blue_diamond: 1. Market Cap > ₹20,000 Cr

This ensures the screen includes only large-cap companies that are:

  • Financially stable

  • Less volatile

  • Have strong institutional backing

  • Capable of withstanding macro-economic shocks

Large caps reduce risk and provide more reliable long-term performance.


:small_blue_diamond: 2. PE Ratio < 20

A PE below 20 generally indicates:

  • The company is not overpriced,

  • You are not overpaying for its earnings,

  • Better margin of safety for investors.

This avoids overvalued companies and helps focus on reasonably priced businesses.


:small_blue_diamond: 3. Revenue Growth > 15% (3-year growth)

This identifies companies with real business expansion.

You pick companies that are:

  • Growing consistently,

  • Increasing demand for their products/services,

  • Scaling operationally,

  • Likely to compound earnings in future.

This filter ensures you invest in companies with sustained long-term growth momentum.


:small_blue_diamond: 4. Book Value Per Share < Price × 1.05

This ensures the stock is:

  • Fairly valued

  • Near its intrinsic worth

  • Has limited downside risk

  • Potentially offers undervaluation opportunities

If the market price is close to the company’s book value, it typically signals value investing opportunities.


:white_check_mark: Backtest Results (Based on 100 Daily Candles)

:trophy: Best Performing Sector:

Non-Ferrous Metals

  • Best Holding Period: 15 days

  • Average Return: 2.89%

  • Win Rate: 83.72%

  • Risk–Reward Ratio: 1 : 1.20

This sector showed strong short-term consistency and stable returns, making it a strong pick in this screener.


:bar_chart: Avg. Returns vs Win Rate (Scatter Plot Insight)

The plot highlights:

  • SHRIRAMFIN → Highest average returns among screened stocks

  • SBIN & HINDALCO → Excellent win rate + stable performance

  • AXISBANK → Moderate returns with decent win consistency

  • Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles (TMPV) → Positioned lower, weaker performance

Stocks in the top-right quadrant deliver both strong returns & high consistency — ideal for swing or positional strategies.


:chart_increasing: Stock Performance Across Holding Periods

Strong performers (Positive slope across periods):

  • SBIN – consistent green slope

  • HINDALCO – steady positive trend

  • AXISBANK – improving returns over time

Weak performers (Red, declining trend):

  • COALINDIA

  • ITC (downward drift across timeframes)

This gives a clear sector and stock-wise breakdown to identify stable, momentum-backed picks.