Nifty saw a sharp spike recently, largely driven by geopolitical relief — the US-Iran 2-week ceasefire eased fears around oil and supply disruptions, triggering a strong risk-on move globally.
Lower crude (back below $100), stronger rupee, and improving sentiment all came together and markets reacted instantly.
But now that the initial reaction is settling, things feel a bit more balanced.
At the same time, we’ve had the RBI policy decision, where rates were kept unchanged at 5.25%, with a cautious stance given ongoing global uncertainty
So now we’re in an interesting spot:
• One side:
easing war tensions + falling oil → bullish
• Other side:
central bank staying cautious + uncertain macro backdrop → not fully bullish
Which makes the recent move feel like a relief rally, rather than a clean trend shift.
The real question now is:
does the market build on this move, or was this just a sharp unwind of fear?